On the 8th, several European financial institutions provided their assessments of oil price trends, presenting a clear yet challenging "coordinate" for the automotive industry: although a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has brought oil prices back below $100 per barrel, it is unlikely that prices will return to pre-conflict lows in the short term. These reports commonly highlight two uncertain factors—the navigability of the Strait of Hormuz and the timeline for repairs to Middle Eastern energy facilities. In late February, U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran nearly halted this critical shipping route, causing New York crude oil futures to surge from below $70 per barrel to over $110 by early April. The progress of negotiations and the restoration of shipping will directly determine whether oil prices rise or fall and how volatile they will be. Different institutions have varying focuses in their assessments: - ING: The ceasefire may alleviate long-term supply concerns, but oil prices will still fluctuate with the status of negotiations and shipping recovery. - UBS: It is still unclear when and to what extent shipping can resume; if the strait is blocked again, oil prices could rebound immediately; even under optimistic estimates, repairing facilities and restoring capacity could take weeks or even months. - Barclays: The ceasefire has avoided the "worst-case scenario," but with facilities still unrepaired and the situation unclear, oil prices cannot quickly drop to previous low levels. - Capital Economics: If the ceasefire can be sustained, the average Brent crude oil price in the second quarter could be around $95, potentially falling to about $80 in the fourth quarter. - Societe Generale: Assuming the ceasefire is successful and tensions ease, oil prices could drop to a minimum of $85 by the end of the year; however, if countries stockpile oil for energy security, prices may rise. For the automotive industry, this not only suggests that oil prices may remain "high and volatile," but also implies that technologies and product strategies related to fuel efficiency will directly impact the actual costs of vehicle ownership for consumers, and this impact will become apparent quickly. I. Oil Prices and Engines: From Laboratory Data to Consumers' Fuel Bills 1. Passenger Vehicles: The "Real Money" Difference in Fuel Efficiency The most immediate effect of high oil prices is the rapid increase in retail prices at gas stations, which tend to fall more slowly. For vehicle owners, as fuel costs rise, the differences in fuel consumption among vehicles with different powertrains and technologies become starkly evident: For instance, small displacement turbocharged engines with efficient combustion technology, variable valve timing (adjusting the timing and amplitude of valve openings), Miller/Atkinson cycles (a fuel-efficient engine operating mode), precise temperature control, reduced friction between parts, stratified fuel injection (depending on exhaust treatment solutions), and higher compression ratios with precise knock control—these seemingly "technical" innovations translate into noticeable differences in fuel consumption for consumers. For the same distance of 100 kilometers, some vehicles may require $50 worth of fuel, while others only $45, making the disparity clear. For hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles, the ability of the engine to operate in the "most fuel-efficient mode" in most daily scenarios is crucial for consumers to perceive "this car is really fuel-efficient." 2. Diesel and Commercial Vehicles: The "Fine Balance" Between Fuel Efficiency and Emissions In scenarios like heavy-duty trucks and urban delivery, high oil prices lead to a greater focus on the long-term costs associated with "fuel consumption per hundred kilometers." Engine temperature control (including maintaining appropriate temperatures in the exhaust treatment system), injection timing and pressure, and the ratio of exhaust gas recirculation must strike a more refined balance between "meeting emission requirements" and "maximizing fuel efficiency." Companies may accelerate the adoption of technologies such as efficient turbocharging, high-pressure injection, waste heat recovery, and 48V mild hybrid systems—even a 1% reduction in fuel consumption can lead to significant long-term cost savings. II. The "Fuel Efficiency Trio" for Automakers and Suppliers 1. Increase Electrification Configurations for More Intuitive "Fuel Savings" When oil prices are high, the cost-effectiveness of hybrid systems becomes more pronounced: using an Atkinson cycle efficient engine combined with energy recovery from hybrid systems, automatic cylinder deactivation, and low-speed electric driving can significantly reduce fuel consumption in urban conditions. Automakers may expedite the following in
